Saturday, November 17, 2007

Uncanny!

It is uncanny! The night I wrote about Baghdad being too quiet I was awakened by the sound of an explosion. That day I was thinking that I knew something was wrong and today again the sound of another explosion rocking western Baghdad. What is sad is not that not only do these explosions continue, but that the people pay the price for the politicians' recalcitrance. It is also interesting that the press today is reporting that the embassy is trying to understand this lull and the Iranian role, while it should be crystal clear, they figure the bombing campaign did not work through the summer to get troops out, the best way to do it now is to make people feel that they have won by calming the situation so that people will call for the troops to leave. It seems to me that this should be realpolitik 101. It will also be interesting to see how the different political groups will react when the longer term security agreement needs to be signed between the US and Iraq. I believe it will be then that US diplomats will see where political loyalties really stand.

The government continues to show its sectarian nature and yet it seems as people turn a blind eye to it. The question is can the present political class navigate Iraq out of its present rough political waters? The answer is clearly no...I believe it will take a new generation of people who can get past their sectarian differences and look for the good of the country. The reality is now all are vying to shape the new Iraq and unless something dramatically changes this will continue for the next 5-7 years until the new political order and system in Iraq is set. Sunnis feel they can reverse some of the damage that the Shia Ideologues have done and Shia want to cement the system where they rule as religious ideologues and not as platform politicians and the Kurds are content to see the instability continue so that they can continue to build Kurdistan at the expense of the rest of Iraq. The United States probably wants political disarray so that it can gain the best arrangement for long term agreements in Iraq and Iran continues to play the political groups against one another in a grotesque divide and conquer strategy. All of this is happening at the back door to the Gulf countries who seem completely oblivious to what a Shia religious state in Iraq would mean to their security.

Sorry for the incongruence of thoughts, these were a few thoughts that came to mind as I was reading through some government paperwork...

8 comments:

Fatima said...

I enjoy reading your 'random' thoughts, Working for Iraq. Thanks for sharing.

Nogueira Jr. said...

Freedom

“We are free to be free
To make our own destiny
To shine like the sun
To become one
To hide under the moon
Under in the gloom
To run with the deer
To make worry disappear
To listen and to hear
To love and to fear
To make our minds be clear
To laugh and to cheer
To travel and to steer
In the path we have chosen
To be hot or cold or even frozen
We are free to be free
To make our own destiny
And to look back from the finish line
And to shout with joy and not to whine.”
(By Daniel Hooks)

Abra├žos...
Nogueira Jr
http://nogueirajr.blogspot.com

Shihab said...

Thuogh far and apart, we in the Maldives share the grief of our brothers and sisters who have been compelled into daily atrocities of all kind. It is inhuman and inexcusable. Yet, the players are blind to the suffering of the people they claim to save from atrocities. The human mind is such a maze of mismatches!

Our prayers are with you, irrespective of which color, creed or religion the person suffering belongs to.

Fatima said...

Thanks Shihab and Maldivians!

Joel said...

The situation in Iraq was and continues to be tragic. I was especially touched by your earlier post inviting the doctors and technocrats to return to Iraq. As I am sure you know, those people where mainly Sunnis, not because they were more intelligent than Shias, but rather because the Hussein government was run by Sunnis and therefore made opportunities for Sunnis that did not exist for Shias. Unfortunately, the devil has been paid. Nonetheless, I agree with you that it is vital that those people return, although suggesting that they now be in charge of the government is a little much.

Also, the notion that "the United States probably wants political disarray so that it can gain the best arrangement for long term agreements in Iraq and Iran continues to play the political groups against one another in a grotesque divide and conquer strategy" simply misreads the nature of American democracy. There is no "United States" policy in the sense you use it. That policy, if such it be, is a Bush policy. A Democratic president, which seems at the moment to be a virtual certainty, will clearly withdrew the troops from Iraq. The only question will be immediately or some staged withdrawal. Iraq then, for better or worse, will have to settle its political problems. Let us hope that will be without violence.

Anonymous said...

"I was especially touched by your earlier post inviting the doctors and technocrats to return to Iraq. As I am sure you know, those people where mainly Sunnis"

How innocently and gently the wedge was driven, how vital it is that it remains

Anonymous said...

If Bush wants political disaray
why is it the Bush presidency
that keeps pressing the opposing forces in Iraq to reconcile???

You have political disary now
and it cost 2 Billion dollars per week to maintain our force prescence ... The simple hard fact
for Iraqi to swallow is that
"the occupiers" are the moderates
seeking an inclusive secular
government and the extremists
have killed over 4 years
over ten times the number of civilians that the of the
coalition forces ....

Was not Bremmers first appointment of Allawi meant to unify Iraq ???

Is not Allawi a more unifying figure then Jaffari or Maliki ???

WorkingForIraq said...

Anonymous,

I think you have misunderstood the point. You have taken one statement from many and commented on it leaving out the bigger picture. The United States has played a positive role in Iraq in trying to keep Iraq together, this does not mean that strategic interests do not dictate a certain amount of disarray to get what you want. It is useful to use a certain amount discord in negotiations and this is a normal part of politics. This does not undermine what US troops are doing, but I do want to remind the writer, that not paying attention to Iranian activities in Iraq by the US Embassy and forces here from 2003 - 2006 is a primary source for why the influence of the US Embassy is less than that of the Iranian Embassy in Iraq, granted the US has tried to promote a stable government overall, it does not negate other nefarious actions which is a normal part of realpolitik and the relationship between nations. It is telling that you were angered by a simple slight of the US, all I have to say is no one is innocent, the US did much for Iraq but it also partly responsible for the situation we are in today, as are the Iraqis who refuse to overcome their sectarian identities and agendas and stand together as Iraqis. If you ask anyone in the State Department who has any knowledge on Iraq's history they will definitely concede this point, it does not make sense for us to get all up in arms about a certain amount of criticism as I am happy to accept yours and have restated it in this comment.